US Geological Survey to make low level aircraft flights over Spokane for measurements

USGS data collection:

For about one month, an airplane operated under contract to the U.S. Geological Survey will be making low-level flights over a 1000-square-mile area centered over Spokane and including parts of eastern Washington and western Idaho.

Starting around May 18, anyone observing the low-flying plane should not be alarmed if they see it fly over or pass below the horizon. The airplane is operated by experienced pilots who are specially trained for low-level flying.

The survey is designed to measure the magnetic field of the earth, which is related to geologic and hydrologic units that lie below the land surface. It is part of an ongoing USGS program to identify hidden geologic features, such as changes in rock types, ultimately providing a better understanding of the geology and hydrology of the area. For example, the survey may help map shallow faults responsible for a sequence of small earthquakes that occurred during the summer and fall of 2001 inside Spokane city limits.

The airplane is operated by EDCON-PRJ of Lakewood, Colorado, which is working with the Federal Aviation Administration to ensure flights are safe and in accordance with U.S. law.

via USGS Release: Low-Flying Airplane Mapping Spokane Area 5/15/2013 3:00:00 PM.

2013 Spokane Bloomsday Run Statistics – Final Numbers

Final Results – Bloomsday Historical Trend in Participation

2013 “Finished” came in at 47,165. My estimate was 46,930 which is within 1/2% of the final number. I did not update the chart since 1/2% would be the width of the line! KHQ TV’s estimate was 28% too high

The long term trend in Bloomsday participation is down

This chart shows participation from 1987 forward, with trend lines added. 1987 was selected as the start date as this is when the event reached maturity (actually slightly before it reached maturity).

There are many factors that influence participation including weather and local demographics. Would be interesting to compare this trend to other races in the NW to see if this is a local issue or a general issue for running events.

Percentage of registrants that finish

It is likely that the largest group of non-finishers are people who registered but did not show up on the day of the run.

Where Participants Come From

The overwhelming majority come from Spokane County, nearby North Idaho and then other areas in Washington State. Just 1.9% come from Canada – presumably they sing the Canadian national anthem at Bloomsday to give it an International flavor. (For the record, I really like Canadians and Canada.)

A reasonable guess is that at least 70%-80% of participants are local or just drove in for the day and do not stay overnight.  Bloomsday is primarily a local Spokane/NE WA/N ID event.

Economic Impact

The distribution of participants by geography affects the economic impact of Bloomsday. Those from out of town are more likely to stay in hotels and spend money at restaurants or shopping venues.

While those from in-town and the local area may also spend money at restaurants and shopping, this does not necessarily add to the Spokane economy. This is because it is spending money locally that would have otherwise been spent locally anyway and does not necessarily represent a net gain to the local economy. Whether we buy a hamburger a week ago or buy a hamburger this week because of Bloomsday, the impact is the same – no net gain. The main economic impact comes from those who are from outside the area.

There are both positive and negative economic impacts. The positive ones are mostly obvious, coming from true out of town visitors, the negative ones include businesses being closed and businesses that see lower sales on the day of the event because of the event, and disruptions to local traffic and local activities.

2013 Spokane Bloomsday Run Total Participants and Historical Trend

(5/6/2013 Watch for a newer version of this coming out soon – with more interesting facts and charts!)

2013 Spokane Bloomsday Running Race Event

As of May 4th, the Spokesman-Review reports an estimate of 51,000 registrations expected. On May 5th, KREM reports 48,000 registrations.

On April 29th and again on April 30th,KHQ reported over 60,000 people would finish the race, which has never happened in the event’s history and considering the trend, seems unlikely.

In the chart below, 2013 is estimated at 51,000 per the Spokesman-Review and the number of finishers is estimated based on the ratio of completions in 2012. This chart will be updated when final numbers are available.

Update: Final number of registrations came in at 51,950. Based on that, I estimate 46,930 finishers. 

Nice shirts :)

Not to be out done by KHQ making up the 60,000 finishers number, KXLY falsely reports “Bloomsday 2013, as is the case with years past, is bigger and better than ever“.

Perhaps better but definitely not bigger!

Bloomsday Participants – Percent Men versus Percent Women

Why are guys no longer participating as much in Bloomsday?

Also, the terrorists won.  Total victory.

Spokane to ban all backpacks and gym bags along entire course, says the Spokesman-Review.  The police Chief, in a massive anti-environment move, says people should wear disposable clothing:

Backpacks and gym bags will not be allowed on the course, Straub said. Instead of carrying extra layers of clothing, Straub said to wear disposable sweaters and jackets to stay warm during the chilly morning hours.

One cannot make this up.

Next step will probably be to require all participants be naked. That would serve a dual purpose – security, and it would probably increase the number of men participating in the event too. 

Further, the statistical correlation between clothing and terrorism is a stunning 100%. The correlation with backpacks, hooded sweatshirts, gym bags and coats is almost zero percent.

The only way to keep us safe from underware and shoe bombers is to  insist on full scale nudity. Anything less and Bloomsday will be unsafe. Please call the authorities and demand that Bloomsday be kept safe by requiring all participants and spectators to be naked.

March 2013 Employment and Unemployment Trends for Spokane County MSA

Total non-farm jobs decreased during March. Looking at the data from 2007 to 2013, the only other year employment went down between February to March was 2009, as the U.S. entered a deep and long lasting recession. Hopefully this downturn in employment is a fluke that will shortly reverse.

The unemployment rate went down from February to March. A drop was expected although this preliminary unemployment estimate is sharper than I expected. The unemployment rate refers to the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and looking for work and the rate often tracks off in its world. I primarily focus on the total number of non-farm jobs – in other words, how many people are actually working.  People who are working and creating things and delivering services are what makes the economy move forward.

With Spokane County at 9.1%, King County has fallen to 5.5%.

Bloomsday run, lilac festival parade armed forces day

 

Annual Days of Sunshine in Spokane

The weather this spring is awesome, isn’t it?

But how does Spokane’s weather stand up, by the numbers?

Annual Days of Sunshine in Washington – Current Results.

Spokane’s days of sunshine per year (on average) is surprisingly similar to Seattle. Not what many of us might have expected.

For Washington:

For Oregon:

For Idaho:

How are those weather terms defined?

• If the sun shines for 70% of the day time or more, its a “Sunny” day.
• If the sun shines for between 21% and 69% of the day, its “Partly Sunny or Partly Cloudy” day. What’s the difference? The sun doesn’t shine at night so we call it “Partly cloudy”.
• If the sun shines for less than 20% of the day, its “Cloudy”.

February Unemployment rises to 10.0% in Spokane County

As we predicted last month, the February unemployment estimate comes in at 10.0%. The February unemployment rate is essentially unchanged from one year ago and has ended its trend of dropping one percent per year from 2010 to 2011 and then down again to 2012. March may come in at 9.5% to 9.7%. Elsewhere. King County’s unemployment level dropped to 5.9% in February.

There is some good news – the estimated number of employed people has increased  – compare February 2013 to February 2012 in the data table.

Total employed remains less than in 1998 and 2000 (chart is from US BLS and is current through January 2013) which means there has been no growth in jobs for 12-13 years.