Home sales data misreported due to NAR problem
February 22, 2011 Leave a comment
The National Association of Realtors issues monthly estimates of the number of homes sold in the U.S. Due to a problem in their methodology, their estimates of home sales may have been 10% to 15% too high from about 2007 onwards.
This would mean that the real estate market is a bit worse than thought with the “months-of-supply” now being much longer than previously disclosed.
In non-inflation adjusted terms, home prices, on average, are now back to early 2003 levels. When adjusted for inflation, home prices have fallen to year 2000 levels (as I read the article). Estimates of further price declines range from 5% to 25% drops – but no one has done well at making predictions.