The challenge of creating forecasts for Spokane’s future
June 21, 2011 Leave a comment
In the past I have shown that the airport’s 20 year forecast of operations was wrong the year it was issued back in 2000.
This past weekend, I showed that the forecast of a $1.6 billion economic impact from a Spokane medical school is highly misleading at best – and is bandied about in public in a fraudulent way.
I wish to re-emphasize that forecasting is not an exact activity. These two slides illustrate the problem well:
The slides apparently originated from the Simian research institute in the U.K. although I obtained them elsewhere and cannot vouch for their authenticity.
Having worked as a consultant I know full well the pressure that consultants are often under to produce studies that prove a pre-determined outcome. In Spokane, this approach seems common. And might explain why Spokane’s current economy has been wrecked, a topic I will revisit in the future.