Percent of Spokane High School Seniors Taking the SAT Exam

SAT exam scores are required for application to most 4-year college programs.

The percent of Spokane area high school seniors taking the SAT exam – and hence likely to be college bound – has continued its multi-year collapse.  57% of all Washington high school seniors took the SAT last year but in Spokane, the total is 36%.

This may solve the mystery as to the excitement over more low wage warehouse worker and call center jobs opening in Spokane:   that’s what the workforce here is qualified to do. But seriously, shouldn’t we be frightened of this trend? What steps could be undertaken to address this?

The data comes from the Community Indicators of Spokane web site and is updated from that previously shown on this blog.

Related: 80% to 92% of local community college students need to take remedial math. That compares to 60% nationally.

Updated January 2014:

Follow the line from left to right – the percent of Seniors taking the SAT has gone up nicely, albeit, still lagging the state as a whole (green line).

SATScoresThru2012

Recommendations 2: Part 4 – Plans – Let’s Aim High

Mount Spokane and surrounding peaks, as viewed...

Image via Wikipedia

Plans, plans and more plans.

Spokane has no shortage of economic plans going back decades. Please see the links in the right most column of this web page to read about past plans and summaries of what they proposed.

All of them had mostly the same findings and same recommendations.

Poverty and low wages are mentioned in all of them.

The lack of a research university is also prominent. Let’s look at that.

Former Representative Tom Foley said the lack of a research university with graduate research programs hindered Spokane’s forward progress. This idea, going back to the 1980s, led to the opening of SIRTI in the early 1990s.

The Spokane Intercollegiate Research and Technology Institute (SIRTI) was created by former Speaker of the House Tom Foley, the area’s longtime congressional representative, who was convinced that the lack of a top-notch research facility was a factor holding back Spokane’s economic progress. Initial funding came through a federal grant, and it is now supported by state funds and fees paid by participating companies.

Source: 2003 Brookings Institution study and Ten Years of Innovation (SIRTI publication).

And also:

“Spokane is not at the forefront of higher education. Lack of a major research institution has consistently been called a weakness as community officials assemble a 21st-century information-based economic curriculum.”- Bert Caldwell, Spokesman-Review newspaper.

And:

Throughout the 70’s and 80’s, there was a growing hope that high technology industries could add markedly to the Spokane metro area. Some challenged the feasibility of this goal without a research university saying that Spokane could not hope to compete in the newly emerging world of high technology or biotechnology without this vital asset. Although Spokane has four 4-year universities and a thriving community college system, Spokane has been bereft of a technology transfer, research university

Source

Foley and others helped the Spokane Intercollegiate Research and Technology Institute – which was supposed to create spin offs from local university and government lab research into start ups and industry, and assist other start ups in creating a thriving community of science and technology start ups (some historical background).

To answer the challenge, the Washington State Legislature, with local guidance, created the Spokane Riverpoint Higher Education Park and created the Joint Center for Higher Education JCHE. The JCHE mandate was to catalyze a high tech sector, begin the effort to provide high tech worker education programs, and to be the administrative agent for the newly created Spokane Intercollegiate Research and Technology Institute SIRTI. The JCHE was to spur university collaboration in teaching of computer science, biotechnology, and other technology classes; collaboration in research projects especially with industry partners; and foster high-tech worker education and training programs. SIRTI was to be operated as a research and technology-facilitating institute that would provide grants, independent research laboratory space, project management help, infrastructure, and the capability of scientists from all local colleges and universities to collaborate.

Source

SIRTI was structured with a Board dominated by academic and government labs due to the thinking that its mission was to move academic and government lab research into the private sector. Over the years, its role has morphed. Today SIRTI is an economic development agency working to help science and tech start ups state wide.

On their website intro they no longer mention the university and government lab connection:

Sirti accelerates Inland Northwest technology-based companies toward success and positive regional economic impact. We deliver entrepreneurial coaching, a mix of no- or low-cost business services, access to capital, and the legal services needed for successful formation, IP protection and long-term growth.

Yet the majority of their Board are still members of the academic and government lab communities, followed by roughly financial services … it seems its original organization structure has not kept up with its contemporary mission. Unfortunately, its Board is specified by State law – as if they poured concrete into the org chart …

Update: There is a bill pending before the legislature that would merge SIRTI and the Seattle-based Washington Technology Center and …. reconstitute the Board so that it was no longer dominated by academic and government agencies. The bill is here.

In addition to assisting start ups, which SIRTI certainly does, SIRTI has, over the years, been seen as a substitute for the lack of local network clusters in science and technology. This is plagiarized from my previous post on this topic:

The Ecosystem Problem

With the loss of the regions early tech and tech manufacturing sector, the area lost its ecosystem and peer networks that in other high innovation locales help to create a culture of risk taking and rule breaking:

“To be blunt, the startup networks that exist in the Inland Northwest are a far cry from the ‘dense network of relationships’ that exist in places like Silicon Valley.”

The Innovation Economy author saw incubators, like SIRTI,  trying to substitute for the “dense networks” that exist in innovation ecosystems by providing “access to mentors, peers, enablers, resources, education and information”. But … there is always a but … at the cost of requiring “exclusivity, requiring an extremely high level of success prior to providing assistance, and requiring the use of in-house services”.

SIRTI was going to help move academic research into the private sector, substitute for the lack of graduate research programs in the area and substitute for the lack of network clusters. But this missed a real world path from lab to industry – the path runs through the students, not a state agency incubator:

The best technology transfer program comes from the students themselves, not from government agencies set up to create university technology transfer (SIRTI).  We need undergraduates and graduate students who pursue their own entrepreneurial instincts to turn great ideas into even better ideas. The real world path from lab to start up goes through  undergraduate and especially graduate research students working in research labs, who license or take ideas from the labs in to their own start ups.

This may explain why we do not have the rich ecosystem of science and technology start ups that were originally envisioned. We’ve got SIRTI. But we do not have the graduate research students who are a critical path to migrate great ideas into profit making ventures. We also lack the graduate education opportunities that attract ambitious students to the area – most all of these students must go elsewhere to get the education they seek and then probably go to work some place else too.

In other words, perhaps the model is broken. It sort of worked but looking at the local economic numbers and the local ecosystem, it did not achieve the orbit that was originally planned. Total jobs here are now down by 10% over the past decade.

Please do not conclude that SIRTI is not working. That is not the message. The message is that a lot more might have happened if we had the rest of the ecosystem.

I previously documented on this web site, that we have close to zero graduate degrees in science, technology and engineering available in this area. Follow the links to learn more.  More information here.  And enrollment in undergraduate technology fields has fallen by 2/3ds.

(GSI says “With its strong base of research and academic resources, Spokane is concentrated on becoming a burgeoning center for information technology and telecommunications.” …. really?)

WSU-Spokane has big plans to greatly expand its health science programs in Spokane in coming years, including moving its College of Pharmacy from Pullman to Spokane.

As many observed since the 1980s, without graduate programs in multiple disciplines, Spokane’s innovation economy is ham strung.

Do we have what is needed for a 21st century innovation-based economy?

Are we Aiming High Enough?

Spokane is the 2nd largest city in the State and the County is the 4th largest by population.

In terms of the much desired research university, Spokane has the smallest branch campus of any research university, as shown in the following chart of WSU branch campuses. Tacoma, with UW-Tacoma branch campus has 3,155 students enrolled today, Bothell has 3,227 students while Spokane has 1,267, even though its been here since 1989. (Crossed out “branch”. Since 2004, WSU-Spokane is not a branch campus but an actual campus.)

While WSU-Spokane will grow larger, so will the others. Spokane’s campus is the smallest and now its the slowest growing. Why?

Local promoters have asked the State to open a 2nd medical school in Spokane. That would be a great asset but due to funding, the Governor says not until sometime after 2021.

This doesn’t feel right – Is Spokane being short changed?  Have we aimed high enough?

Aiming High or Low

Way back in the 1980s, local leaders identified the lack of a research campus as a weakness.  We settled for SIRTI and the smallest of all research branch campuses in the State, plus a fine non-research university (EWU, and also GU and the smaller Whitworth).

Some one suggested to me that this is due to the area’s culture-“we settle for good enough” rather than consistently aiming high, seeking excellence and really doing what it takes to compete on a world class level. To clarify that comment, there are people here who seek and deliver excellence, but I understand what is being said and hopefully you understand too.

Doing “good enough” shows up in the data (e.g. low participation rates on high school SAT exams). Anecdotally, I’ve run into this “good enough” attitude many times myself.

We settle for good enough. It’s a nice place to raise a family. There’s lots of golf courses. It’s a nice place to retire. It’s near nature, near good enough. But good enough will not be a winning strategy in a globalized economy (unless we settle for regional services where we have some regional market power).  Someone else hints a good enough mind set could have been a factor in why Agilent left town (see the next couple of comments there).. I have no idea, those assertions could be right or wrong.

Why not think big, on the order of another World’s Fair Expo? How about an all out effort to put together all the pieces for a comprehensive innovation based ecosystem? Not just bits and pieces but the whole deal?

Ecosystems

Related Past Posts on this web site that will help in understanding the problems, the issues and possible solutions:

Unfortunately, local leadership (and state law) has us headed down a path through an incoherent industrial cluster strategy.  We need to build the whole ecosystem and stop drawing ever expanding geometric shapes on a map to proclaim we have clusters that we do not actually have.

Recommendation

Keeping in mind that I am probably off the wall, possibly clueless and perhaps just wrong – with that in mind, here goes:

  1. Let’s invest in people and ideas, not concrete.

  2. Aim high. Really high.

  3. Do not settle for anything less than excellence.

Will that happen?  It will if we can break out of the good enough mindset. Kinda hard to break but like concrete, when hit with a big enough sledge hammer cracks can develop …

But it might not happen without financial incentives to well connected landowners in town: Benefiting from poured concrete paid for by someone else has been a pretty good gig! (Of course, the med school will be built right where you can guess and benefit … oh, you get the idea …)

Odds favor that we continue to pour concrete to eternity, wages will be unacceptable, ambitious people seeking excellence and and young people with skills and seeking opportunity will head for the coastal cities. Like they’ve been doing for some time. Read what Timothy Egan wrote about Spokane in the NY Times.

“Good enough” and “pouring concrete” are possibly the root cause issues to address. That would make for an interesting discussion topic.  For those that asked for recommendations, there you go!

I could be completely wrong, but at least its different than 30 years of existing plans and strategies.

Alternatives?

The alternative is to settle into a collection of regional service industries which is what we have today. Government is a service, health care is a service, and most of the next largest sectors (retail, hotels and restaurants, business and professional services) are services meeting the needs of the two big kids on the block (government and health care and their work force).

Those that prefer to compete at a world-class, globalized economy level in fields other than government and health care, local service and niche market industries, will find better opportunities somewhere else. Fair enough.

But we will need to re-align our local promotional efforts with this goal (they are not now aligned). And we will still be stuck with our stubborn wage problem: except for the big government and health care sectors, most of our remaining services sectors do not pay well.

More higher education data charts for Spokane

Eastern Washington University

Image via Wikipedia

EWU Degrees Awarded (both undergraduate and graduate degrees) – looks good!

This is a follow up to two posts made a few days ago.

The data for the above came from several sources including EWU’s web site, HECB reports and other sources.

 

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded from All Washington Public colleges

Degrees Awarded in High Demand Fields

These would be in engineering, software engineering, computer science, architecture and health care.

Six Year Graduation Rate

Means percent of students who have graduated within 6 years of starting.  There is an expectation that students finish in 4 years but for many reasons, this may not occur. Reasons include illness, changing majors, financial reasons and having to work, amongst many common issues.

Source for the copied charts, above: http://www.hecb.wa.gov/news/documents/AccountabilityReport2009-Revised.pdf

Spokane’s capacity for innovation in high tech and bioscience

“High Tech” generally refers to the fields of electronics engineering and computer science, but there is no formal definition. The field can and does include other disciplines including alternative energy, sometimes includes “biotech” and others.

As a rough measure of Spokane’s capacity for innovation, we can look at the number of 4 year and graduate degrees awarded in relevant fields. (Another is to look at issued patents – which in the case of Spokane, have dropped by negative 75% since 1998. Not good.)

Using the IPEDS database, data was collected for degree completions in certain subjects, from 2001 to 2009. Due to issues with the data tables and the data (see notes below), this chart is primarily useful for looking at the overall trend, but perhaps not the specific numbers.

The following chart combines the BS in computer science, management information systems, and the information sciences degrees (during the years it was offered), and combines the BS in biology and chemistry degrees awarded at Eastern Washington University. Other fields were also counted such as computer engineering technology, but due to very low numbers or missing data, these files were not included in the chart.

Important: the IPEDS data for biology degrees in 2004 was missing. Rather than estimate a value, the value was set to zero, accounting for the unusual drop in 2004 in the red line.

Interpretation

  • The interpretation is that Spokane’s capacity for high tech has fallen sharply with the number of CS/IS/MIS degrees falling to less than one-third of the 2001 total.  The number of degrees awarded in electrical or electronic engineering (a new program at EWU) is 10 or below each year, and is also low at GU.
  • Spokane’s capacity for biology and chemistry has increased by about one-third.

Other local colleges add a negligible number to the above totals. According to IPEDS, Gonzaga had four B.S. in computer science graduates in 2009 and 37 in Biology and 3 in chemistry.

An additional factor is the area’s capabilities in graduate degrees in the sciences and engineering.

  • At this time, there are no longer any graduate degrees in engineering offered in Spokane.
  • From 2006 to 2009, EWU averaged 5.75 Masters degrees in computer science. EWU offers the only on campus Masters in a technology or engineering field in all of the Spokane area.
  • From 2005 to 2009, EWU averaged 5.6 Masters degrees in biology. Other than an MS in Exercise Science at WSU-Spokane, this is the only masters degree in science offered in the Spokane area.

Update: August 2013 – In 2012, EWU graduated 65 BS CS degrees and 3 M.S. CS degrees, plus 23 BS in electrical engineering and 4 BS in mechanical engineering degrees (the latter two are relatively new programs at EWU). GU had 11 BS CS grads, 50 BS CE, 21 BS EE and 52 BS ME. The EWU MS CS program is the only graduate technical degree offered in the Spokane market.

Important Notes

The IPEDS data is difficult to work with as it is organized by program code numbers, not by alphabetical order of the degree name.  Program codes change from year to year and the same program may appear under different program codes, in the same year.  Some years include an overall total for the program while others include the total number of male and female graduates separately (but not program total).  In a few places, some programs are listed twice!  The BS in biology showed only 1 graduate in 2004, which is not likely correct.

Several programs were examined but due to few graduates, they were not included in the final chart, above. The other program data appears in the data table, below.

It is possible that due to the difficulty of working with the IPEDS data that some individual numbers are incorrect. It seems unlikely that the overall trend curves would not change significantly.

Data table after the break …

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WSU Enrollment Up, but Down at WSU-Spokane

Pullman’s enrollment is up to 18,805 students, while Spokane has 1,267.

via NW today: Wash. legislators might change GET program – Spokesman.com – Feb. 2, 2011.

While overall WSU enrollment continues to climb, WSU Spokane’s spring enrollment of 1,267 is down from 1,311 in the spring of 2010, or a drop of -3.4% and down from 1,539 in the spring of 2009.

Looks like its time for a chart so we can see the trend over time:


WSU Spokane enrollment falls 17.6% since 2009.

All data came from WSU press releases in their archive.  I could not find a press release for 2003 and the 2002 release did not split out the Spokane enrollment from Pullman; I did not look any further back than that. I assume the above #s are total enrollment and not “Full Time Equivalent” or FTEs. Back in about 2002, the FTE number was about 680 or so and total enrollment is usually about 25% or so greater than the FTE number.

Overall WSU enrollment increased year over year. WSU is a great university – so why the drop at WSU Spokane?

Update: I received a suggestion that WSU-Spokane enrollment is a proxy for the local economy, similar to the airport. WSU-Tri-cities and WSU Vancouver are growing because their local economies are growing; WSU-Pullman is growing because the overall state economy is growing. WSU-Spokane is declining because the local economy is not healthy and the local health care employment market is tough (WSU-Spokane’s primary focus is health care and health sciences.). However, as shown in a later post, EWU’s enrollment has gone up steadily. We also know that WSU’s multi-campus enrollment has risen; only in Spokane has it gone down. Therefore, the issues regarding WSU-Spokane enrollment are likely due to something else besides the local economy.

Related: The much desired Spokane medical school initiative has been postponed until at least 2022. There’s no funding to even start such a project until at least 2022.

Looking at how data changes over time is critical to good reporting and understanding what is happening in Spokane. The SR often leaves out historical context that would help our interpretation of the story.

History of Spokane Economic Plans – Part 4 – Innovation Economy

By 2000, right at the peak of the “dot com” revolution, and just prior to its crash, Dr. David Kazlow produced an economic study for the City of Spokane’s Mayors Office that called for an expanded role for high tech including software development, IT, bio-tech, electronics manufacturing and medical instrumentation. (Source: www.mrsc.org/GovDocs/S73StratEDPlan.pdf)

This was one of the first reports pointing towards an innovation based economy, although it did not phrase it that way. But as of 2000, this report identified some issues with Spokane’s economy that were causing problems:

  • Lack of recognition nationally/internationally as a business location
  • Lack of industrial location and business development incentives, including tax increment financing and a Port Authority
  • High business taxes (a state level issue)
  • Lack of qualified high tech workers
  • Low percentage of college graduates in the workforce compared to western portion of State (slightly above the U.S. average, but two percentage points below that of the State, based on 1990 Census)
  • Limited availability of quality business/high tech parks
  • Local regulatory and permitting impediments to development
  • Significant areas of the downtown are deteriorating
  • Lack of a strong graduate ­level research capability in the local institutions of higher education

I highlighted the first bullet point – Spokane is suitable for regional businesses but is generally not seen as a location for

An academic hall at Gonzaga University in Spok...

Image via Wikipedia

national and certainly not world-class businesses. (There are exceptions such as Hollister-Stiers, a contract pharma manufacturer, and Itron, a utility industry electrical power meter company.)

I highlighted the last bullet point because that situation has gotten worse since then. As of 2008, EWU graduated one Masters in computer science and three Masters in Biology. WSU-Spokane has a program in exercise science but I do not know how many graduates it produced. There are no other science, technical or engineering graduate degrees offered in the immediate area and no research doctorates. Both Gonzaga and WSU-Spokane previously offered graduate degrees in engineering and/or computer science, depending on how far back we go – but these are no longer offered.

I will come back to this point again because there are several reports that note the need for strong graduate programs in science, technology and engineering in order for Spokane to create a sustainable environment for science and high technology innovation businesses. Without such programs, we will probably not have much of an innovation ecosystem.

Dr. Kazlow also wrote that Spokane should:

Be an internationally competitive region that aggressively advocates business development and investment that raises our employee compensation levels and lowers the region’s poverty rates.

That darned chronic low wage issue rose again in that 2000 report.

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